The housing economy won’t change much during the balance of 2009, but a year from now the recovery will be underway.

That’s the consensus of current forecasts by economists at three leading national housing associations and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  The forecasts change as often as monthly. 

The success or failure of the Obama Administration’s stimulus and foreclosure prevention programs as well as changing economic conditions may alter the forecasts in the months ahead.

Total home sales for the year are expected to end up at about 5.2 million units, which represents a .2 percent increase in existing home sales and a 30 percent drop in new home sales from last year.

Sales will recover next year with a healthy 8 percent gain on existing home sales and 41 percent increase in new homes, as builders rebuild production.  Rates on a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage should end up around 5.2 percent this year.

Prices will continue to fall through 2009, 5.4 percent on new homes and 5 percent on existing.  In 2010, prices will rise for the first time in three years but only slightly, 1.2 percent on existing homes and .6 percent on new is forecast.